Asteroid 2024 YR4: A 3.1% Chance of Earth Impact in 2032
On 27 December 2024, The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) discovered a new near-Earth asteroid, subsequently designated 2024 YR4. An Apollo-type asteroid with the potential to collide with the Earth in 2032. Current calculations hold to a 1 in 32, or 3.1% chance of impact, making it one of the most closely monitored celestial objects in recent years.
2024 YR4 is estimated to measure between 40 to 90 metres (130 to 300 feet) in diameter, with a mass of approximately 242508 tons. While this may seem small, its size and mass are substantial enough to cause significant damage should it enter the Earth’s atmosphere.
Comparing 2024 YR4 to the Chelyabinsk Meteor of 2013
To put the potential impact of 2024 YR4 into perspective, it is well to compare it to the Chelyabinsk meteor, which entered the Earth’s atmosphere over Russia on February 15, 2013. The Chelyabinsk meteor was significantly smaller, with an estimated diameter of 18 metres (60 feet) and a mass of 9100 tons.
Despite its smaller size, the meteor caused a massive air burst upon entering the atmosphere, releasing energy equivalent to approximately 440 kilotons of TNT. The explosion shattered windows, damaged buildings, and injured over 1500 people, primarily due to the shockwave it generated. In comparison, 2024 YR4 is much larger and more massive.
If it were to enter the Earth’s atmosphere, the energy released could be exponentially greater than that of the Chelyabinsk event. The exact outcome would depend on factors including the asteroid’s composition, speed, and angle of entry.
The Potential for a Meteor Air Burst
A meteor air burst is when an asteroid or meteoroid explodes in the atmosphere before reaching the ground. This phenomenon is caused by the intense heat and pressure generated as the object travels through the atmosphere at high speeds. The Chelyabinsk meteor is a prime example of an air burst, as it disintegrated approximately 30 kilometres (19 miles) above the Earth’s surface.
Were 2024 YR4 to enter the Earth’s atmosphere, it could potentially result in a similar air burst. Given its larger size, the explosion would likely release significantly more energy, with the potential to cause widespread damage over a larger area. The likelihood of an air burst though, depends upon the asteroid’s composition.
If 2024 YR4 is a loosely held-together ‘rubble pile,’ it is more likely to break apart and explode in the atmosphere, thereby generating an airburst, along with a powerful shockwave; more than capable of structural damage, including injuries to persons over a widespread area. The energy released in this instance might be equivalent to several megatons of TNT, far exceeding the Chelyabinsk event. If on the other hand 2024 YR4 is a solid object, it has the possibility of reaching the ground, causing a more localized but highly destructive impact, triggering earthquakes, or a tsunamis if it lands in the ocean.
Asteroid 2024 YR4: 2032 Closest Approach Data
While a 3.1% chance of impact may seem low, continual observations over the following years will ultimately determine if the asteroid is indeed on a collision course. Time will definitely tell when 2032 arrives.
For now, the most exacting calculations at present, according to the JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Small bodies database, are as follows: As of the 20th of February 2025, seven years from now, in 2032, the closest approach distances for 2024 YR4 for both the Earth and the moon are as follows:
Date of closest approach: 22 December 2032
Closest Distance to the Earth = 240852.5 kilometres (0.00161 AU)
Closest Distance to the Moon = 16455.7 kilometres (0.00011 AU)
NB; The mean orbital distance of the moon (about the Earth) = 384404 kilometres
1 AU = 1 Astronomical Unit = 149597870.7 kilometres
Earth radius = 6376.137 kilometres
Moon radius = 1738 kilometres.
According to these observations, as things stand, 2024 YR4 will pass far closer to the moon than the Earth in 2032.